In a market where conditions are shifting rapidly, analytics isn’t a luxury: it’s your competitive edge.
By Alex Caffarini
Empty tasting rooms. Declining DTC shipments. Shifting consumer preferences. Stubborn inflation. Escalating trade tensions. The wine industry is facing a “perfect storm.”
And with 82% of U.S. wineries producing fewer than 5,000 cases per year (2025 Direct to Consumer Wine Shipping Report), these pressures are hitting at a time when many lack the marketing and operational resources to respond quickly and strategically.
So where should small wineries start? With analytics.
Analytics can be your winery’s compass in uncertain times – helping you prioritize your efforts, understand your customers and make informed decisions without a large team. Three ways analytics can help you weather the storm are: demand forecasting, customer segmentation, and marketing optimization.
Look Ahead: Forecast Demand with Confidence
Forecasting isn’t just for big brands. Even basic forecasts can help your winery plan smarter.
By reviewing past sales, events and club patterns, you can identify trends and seasonality to better align production, labor and release schedules with expected demand. Say you forecast demand for the next two years and anticipate a tariff-driven increase in bottle prices. Instead of buying your bottles one season at a time, you may choose to buy ahead — minimizing cost and avoiding delays.
Forecasting models can range from simple moving averages to advanced time-series models. While sophisticated models may require outside help, the payoff is real: faster production decisions, reduced overstock and markdowns, and more consistent cash flow.
Know Who Buys – and Why
Customer behavior is growing more fragmented. Younger consumers are less loyal, older ones are aging out and budgets are tight. Meanwhile, your Gen Z customers may be on TikTok, while Gen X may prefer SMS or email.
Segmentation lets you group customers by shared traits or behaviors. For example, divide your customers into frequent and occasional buyers. You might send the occasional group a reorder reminder and reward loyal buyers with perks or event invites.
With limited data, qualitative segmentation based on surveys or purchase history can still be effective. For deeper insights, advanced tools like RFM analysis — which ranks customers based on Recency (how recently they purchased), Frequency (how often they purchase) and Monetary value (how much they spend) — can quickly identify your most engaged and profitable buyers. It’s easy to run in a spreadsheet and gives you actionable direction on who to prioritize and how to market to them.
For more complex needs, clustering algorithms can reveal high-value customers, expose price sensitivity and guide personalized offers. I recently used this approach with a large winery client to refine its DTC targeting. You can even expand your reach with lookalike modeling — identifying non-customers who resemble your best segments and targeting them with tailored campaigns.
Make Marketing Dollars Work Harder
Tasting room visits have dipped, wine club lapses are rising and customers are watching every dime. When every marketing dollar matters, precision is everything.
Start with testing. A/B testing lets you compare two offers to see which performs better. Suppose you’re trying to convert first-time buyers into subscribers. You send an email promotion giving one group 15% off their first shipment; the other a free decanter with theirs. You’ll want to track both click-throughs and retention. If the decanter offer gets more clicks but most cancel after one shipment, it’s likely the discount created more valuable subscribers.
Analytics also helps you predict which prospects are likely to convert, so you can focus your outreach on those most likely to respond. Analytics can also help you flag club members likely to lapse and engage them with a targeted retention offer.
Predictive tools like these may require external support, but they can extend customer lifecycles, boost ROI and reduce customer acquisition costs.
Steer with Insight, Not Instinct
You don’t need fancy technology to apply analytics, just clarity about what you’re trying to achieve. Even small steps can drive big wins.
Working with an analytics consultant might seem costly at first, but it often pays for itself quickly through better-targeted campaigns, stronger customer retention and more efficient operations. Most wineries need only limited support to address their most pressing challenges — and often won’t need repeat work for quite some time.
In a market where conditions are shifting rapidly, analytics isn’t a luxury: it’s your competitive edge. It’s how your winery can not just survive this storm, but steer confidently through it.
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Alex Caffarini
Alex Caffarini is the founder and president of CompassDTC, a DTC strategy and analytics firm that empowers small and midsized food and beverage brands — including wineries — to compete effectively in the DTC channel. With more than 30 years of marketing analytics and data science experience, he has designed and managed more than 150 survey research projects; developed statistical models for increasing customer acquisition and retention; and authored several market analysis and forecast studies.
