Could the no and low movement save the wine industry?
By Kathleen Willcox
The resistance among hardcore oenophiles to the rise of low and no alcohol wines was completely understandable … at first. But at this point, it’s clear that what seemed like it could be a trend, has become a way of life for many people across the country — even those who love to enjoy a glass, or occasionally three, of fully alcoholic wine.
There are a number of factors at work behind this undeniable surge, some tangible and others less so. There is the World Health Organization’s declaration on January 4, 2023 that there is no “safe” level of alcohol consumption that does not affect health. But there is also the broad, harder-to-measure cultural shift toward wellness, which often involves food and drinks.
What is clearly measurable is the decline in wine sales overall amid the significant spike in the sales of non-alcoholic (NA) wines. Last year, the market size of NA wine was estimated to be around $2.26 billion; that’s expected to expand at a compound annual growth rate of 7.9% between 2024 and 2030, according to an analysis from Grand View Research. The low-alcohol movement has legs as well, with an expected expansion of 3%, according to research from IWSR.
Some winemakers and industry gatekeepers, while initially bristling at the notion of creating, selling or consuming no- or low-alcohol wines, are now reconsidering, given the increased sales opportunities and, more recently, the pervasive glut of grapes on the market due to over planting and decreased general wine consumption.
Grape growers in California, especially, are struggling to sell their grapes. Listings on the WineBusiness Bulk Wine and Grape Board are up 164% year-over-year, despite the fact that the Golden State’s winegrape acreage has decreased by 18,000 acres in the past six years.
Could the no and low movement, counterintuitively, save the wine industry?
Low and No Alcohol Wine Is an Opportunity to Grow
It may seem like drinking wine without alcohol is something you do if you’re trying to just not drink alcohol at all. But that’s actually not how it works: about 78% of people who purchase non-alcoholic beverages also purchase drinks with alcohol, according to NielsenIQ.
“A lot of people who drink no and low also drink wine with alcohol,” says Rachel Martin, founder of Oceano Wines in San Luis Obispo. “It allows for moderation.”
Martin should know, as both an enthusiastic consumer and maker of wines with and without alcohol (and soon, a low-alcohol Syrah clocking in at 3.5% ABV). She launched Oceano Zero in 2023 after conceptualizing it in 2022 when seeking out low and no options herself and finding nothing truly terroir-driven and premium on the market.
“I started with 88 cases. We were the highest-priced domestic no-alcohol Pinot Noir on the market at $55, and we were sold out in three months,” she says. “I took the hint, increased the Pinot to 265 cases and then launched a Chardonnay at $45, which also sold out in three months.”
The reduced alcohol Syrah, which will hit the market soon, is designed for people who want to enjoy a glass or two of wine with alcohol, but still be able to drive a car without giving it a second thought.
Matt Hughes, general manager for Solos by Flavologic, a dealcoholization technology, relates.
“I would personally drink a lot more wine if I knew it would be totally okay for me to hop in the car and pick up my daughter from dance class,” Hughes says. “I find myself reaching for more low and no options during the week if I know I have to get up and hit it hard the next day.”
The mix and match approach to regular, low and no is growing, says Pat Morgan, VP of operations at Wine Hooligans, a Sonoma County-based winery with a portfolio of traditional and no-alcohol wine brands.
“That customer is most often looking for a lower alcohol and calorie wine to have at the end of the evening on a weeknight or as an option for guests who may not want to drink,” says Morgan. “In the short-term, we see the no and low segment of the market as an opportunity for brand owners and brand builders to take advantage of the current ‘better for you’ trend. And, selfishly for the wine industry, introducing new customers to a great tasting low and no alcohol wine will only help build brands in the long term.”
While the low and no market for wine is growing, it hasn’t, as Morgan alludes, enjoyed the jaw-dropping success of the low and no beer and spirits market (sales of no alcohol beers increased 29.2%, according to the Beverage Industry’s 2023 Beer Report, and sales of no alcohol spirits are projected to grow 30%).
Part of the challenge is that vintners and scientists haven’t quite cracked the code for creating no alcohol wine that tastes like wine.
Quality Improvements on the Horizon + Marketing Challenges
Non-alcoholic wine, simply, doesn’t taste the same as wine with alcohol.
“When you take out the alcohol, the chemistry of the wine changes,” Martin says. “It concentrates the acidity, so you have to be aware of the pH, too. It took a lot of trial and error for me to figure out how to remove the alcohol and still produce a balanced, dry wine. But it’s still not the same as drinking wine with alcohol, because alcohol adds aromatic compounds, and it affects the way the other aromatic compounds interact with each other.”
There’s also the issue of how that alcohol is removed, which can drastically affect the final outcome. All alcohol removing technology, Martin says, is not created equal. After serious R&D, she opted to work with BevZero to use its cone-spilling technology, explaining that buying a machine herself would cost close to $1 million.
Technological advancements designed to preserve more aromas and flavors in the wine while extracting alcohol are coming fast and furious, Hughes says, highlighting Solos’ new partnership with Sonoma County’s Rack & Riddle, a custom sparkling wine producer with 3.5 million cases of capacity.
“It will be the first place in the U.S. able to offer Solos’ Aroma Recovery System when it opens in 2025,” says Kim Kulchycki, senior director of marketing at Rack & Riddle.
Hughes says they are launching the new technology at Rack & Riddle, but they hope to establish service centers across the winemaking world. “With the wine industry, there has been a real quality challenge,” he says. “We see this new technology helping winemakers be able to enjoy the growth that non-alcoholic beer has seen.”
Once the wine is made though, it must be sold. Currently, Morgan isn’t convinced that retailers have found the right formula.
“In virtually all of the cases we’ve seen, the no and low option is on the shelf right next to its regular-branded counterpart,” says Morgan. “What’s working in the market are statements that highlight lower calories or lower alcohol.”
The market for no and low alcohol wine exists. And finally, it seems the elements for making and selling it are coming together.
The 2024 North Coast Wine Industry Expo (WIN Expo), held on December 5th, will host a conference session on the opportunities no & low alcohol wines can bring to brands looking to diversify their offerings. This workshop will explore the latest advancements in low and no-alcohol wines, with a focus on preserving aroma, flavor and mouthfeel — complete with samples for tasting. To learn more about this discussion, visit the WIN Expo event website.
Kathleen Willcox
Kathleen Willcox writes about wine, food and culture from her home in Saratoga Springs, N.Y. She is keenly interested in sustainability issues, and the business of making ethical drinks and food. Her work appears regularly in Wine Searcher, Wine Enthusiast, Liquor.com and many other publications. Kathleen also co-authored a book called Hudson Valley Wine: A History of Taste & Terroir, which was published in 2017. Follow her wine explorations on Instagram at @kathleenwillcox
