3 Adult Beverage Trends to Expect in 2017

I am not a betting man. In fact, when I do bet, I usually lose. I am horrific in betting sports, elections, random things, and I am equally bad at Rock, Paper, and Scissors that is essentially a bet on a chance pull.

But, for nearly 5 years I have written a trends article and for nearly 5 years, I have been mostly correct.

I predicted:

• The end of the flash wine site
• The merger of MillerCoors and Anheuser Busch
• The consolidation of Southern and Charmer
• The death and struggle of the independent retailer
• Paso as the new Napa
• And many other things..

So now, please gather around the laptop as I share the top 3 trends you will see in 2017 for the adult beverage space.

The First Real Threat to the Three Tier

Many have spoken about the end of the three tier archaic model and those words have fallen on death ears until 2017. The blending of legal pressure and technology will allow many producers to go direct to the retailer. We all know the DTC model but in many cases producers, distillers and brewers will send the goods directly on/off premise for consumer sale and consumption.

Craft Liquor Will Become Mainstream

I know we all believe that Craft is here to stay and has a major impact on the average cart at retail. Truth be told, the craft goods that sell in America account for less than 3% of the overall spirits that are sold off premise. The consuming public still relishes in the mundane of Smirnoff and Jack Daniels. It is akin to the DTC metrics, that is to say that DTC sales are growing at a double digit pace, but still account for under 4% of wine sold. Next year, Craft Spirits will account for nearly a double digit percent of sold items at the end of 2017 compared to 2016.

The Continued Death of the Independent Retailer

For clarity, I was an independent retailer, so it pains me to write that sentence. The facts are the facts. There are 7 major regional players in the USA and Wal-Mart, Trader Joes, Amazon, Total Wine and BevMo. The small retailer cannot and will not compete on price. They need to either compete on service or knowledge. The issue with that is that it is hard to communicate service and knowledge to a consumer when you have 2 minutes as a life cycle of the transaction. That said, there will be consolidation, shrinking of average cart, and eventually closing of businesses. You will see over 10% of the wine/ liquor shops that are open today, be closed by the end of 2017. It breaks my heart.

To surmise- the world of adult beverage will keep on spinning. Producers will keep on producing and consumers will keep buying. The places to purchase will shrink, the brands will shrink, the distributors with which to place your orders will shrink, and the world will keep on spinning.

Happy Holidays from Rosen Retail