Many wineries have adopted a cautious approach, intentionally minimizing their current supply to reduce costs and risk, assuming they can source additional bulk wine or grapes later, whether in 2026 or beyond. If this is your strategy, you’re not alone. However, as the market tightens, it’s important to recognize that when you and others return to buy, available supply will likely be far more limited than in recent years. Staying in regular contact with us will help you stay informed and positioned for success.
The 2024 crush totaled just 2.87 million tons, marking the first time in over 20 years that production has fallen below 3 million tons. Early projections for the 2025 crop suggest an even smaller harvest, with some industry estimates below 2 million tons.
From a bulk market standpoint, the record 2023 harvest resulted in excess supply and a surge of custom crushing, peaking at 17.9 million gallons of 2023 wine listed for sale. By contrast, the smaller 2024 crop peaked at 12.6 million gallons. This year, with a potentially 30-year-low crush and fewer growers pursuing custom crush due to high costs and existing inventory, the volume of 2025 vintage wine available on the market will likely be significantly smaller.
Based on typical bulk market trends, we project only 5 to 9 million gallons of 2025 wine will be available at the market’s peak, assuming a crop size between 2.1 and 2.8 million tons. Wineries relying on a “just-in-time” approach may face fewer options, especially as others return to the market seeking similar varieties, appellations, and quality levels.
While the market has not yet shifted, it’s important to remember that changes can happen quickly—particularly when many are following the same strategy. In our experience, most buyers tend to compete for the same lots once conditions tighten. The key to success is being proactive and well-informed, allowing you to secure quality lots before demand spikes.
Contact us early to review your options and create a sourcing plan for 2026.
Turrentine Brokerage
Unified Symposium Booth: 515
Turrentine Brokerage was founded in 1973 and specializes in the strategic sourcing of wine grapes and wines in bulk from all regions of California and around the world. Turrentine Brokerage works with thousands of client wineries worldwide, including all of the major brands headquartered in California, and with more than 1,500 growers, including most of the major vineyard holders in the state. This experience and proprietary data is leveraged by Turrentine Brokerage to offer customized strategic supply guidance and execution. Experience has also afforded the company with a unique perspective on supply dynamics and on the means by which forward-looking companies can achieve a competitive advantage in the wine business.
Unified Wine & Grape Symposium trade show at the SAFE Credit Union Conventions Center in Sacramento on January 27-29, 2026.
