September 30, 2024 — The sake industry defines its business year not by the usual Fiscal Year (FY), but by the Brewing Year (BY), which marks the beginning of a typical sake production season. Currently, the Brewing Year runs from July 1 to June 30, but in the past, it was from October 1 to September 30. The Japan Sake and Shochu Makers Association (JSS) established October 1 as “Sake Day” in 1978, celebrating the first day of the brewing year, with the hope of passing a commitment to Japan’s national alcoholic beverage onto future generations, while deepening people’s affection for and understanding of sake. Events are held nationwide in Japan, where people celebrate by toasting with sake on this day.
Domestic and International Trends in Sake
The domestic shipment volume of sake for fiscal 2023 was approximately 47 million cases (9L equivalent)*1, reflecting a significant growth of about 114% compared to the previous year, which had been impacted by the pandemic in 2022. However, this is less than a quarter of the peak shipment volume in 1973, which was approximately 200 million cases. The shipment volume for January-June 2024 was approximately 19 million cases, representing a slowdown to about 81% year-on-year. Currently, the domestic market size is around 400 billion yen. While the volume is declining, premium sake, known as Tokutei Meishoshu, is growing, and the average shipment price continues to rise.
Regarding exports, sake was shipped to 75 countries and regions in fiscal 2023, amounting to approximately 3.2 million cases (9L equivalent) and 41.1 billion yen. While the export value did not reach a record for the 14th consecutive year, it was about 1.8 times higher than 2019, before the pandemic, in terms of value. For the first time, the average export price per 720ml bottle of sake exceeded 1,000 yen, reaching 1,013 yen (compared to 952 yen in 2022). For January-June 2024, shipments reached about 1.67 million cases and 20.4 billion yen, representing 103% and 102% year-on-year growth, respectively. By region, Asia, which is the largest export region for sake, saw its share drop to about 60%, down from about 69% in the same period of 2023, due to the economic slowdown in China, with a year-on-year decline of 89%. On the other hand, North America, led by the United States, saw its share increase from about 22% in 2023 to about 30%, with a year-on-year growth of 139%, compensating for the decline in Asia. Other regions, such as Western and Eastern Europe, as well as Africa, also exceeded the export performance (in terms of value) of the previous year.
Sean Ou, involved in sake education in Singapore and serving as a support desk for the JSS, stated, “Sake is increasingly being viewed similarly to wine by general consumers. Many people no longer mistake sake for a distilled spirit. However, the challenge remains that sake has yet to become a staple in non-Japanese restaurants.” He also analyzed consumer preferences for sake flavors, noting, “Dry sake is becoming more popular in recent years, especially among those with a mature palate.”
In Brazil, Fabio Ota, a sake importer and educator, commented, “In our two retail stores in São Paulo, we have seen an increase in customers who come specifically for certain brands, which suggests that consumers are moving beyond basic knowledge of sake and developing a preference for specific brands.” He pointed to the growing market for sake in Brazil.
Diversity in Premium Sake Created by Rice Suitable for Sake Brewing
Most sake is made using rice specially bred for sake brewing, known as Shuzo Koteki Mai (literally “rice suitable for sake brewing,” or “sake rice” for short). The differences in sake rice create diversity in the flavor of sake, and each brewery selects the rice depending on the flavor they aim to produce. According to a survey by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, about 38% of sake rice used in 2023 was Yamada Nishiki, followed by Gohyakumangoku, Miyama Nishiki, and Omachi.
Suitability for Brewing: Grain Size
Yamada Nishiki, known as the king of sake rice, is primarily produced in western Japan, with 72% grown in Hyogo, Okayama, and Yamaguchi prefectures. It is traded at a higher price than other sake rice, akin to Cabernet Sauvignon or Chardonnay in the wine industry. One reason why Yamada Nishiki is favored by breweries is its large grain size. When brewing sake, breweries polish the rice to remove the fats and proteins located on the outer layers of the grain. While some proteins contribute to a complex flavor, excessive amounts can lead to undesirable tastes. Large rice grains that do not crack easily during polishing are preferred, as cracked rice absorbs water unevenly, leading to inconsistencies in sake quality. This is especially important for delicate Daiginjo-class sake, which requires polishing more than 50% of the rice grain. Yamada Nishiki has been consistently sought after for its large grains, ease of polishing, and high solubility with low protein content.
Suitability for Brewing: Presence of Shinpaku
Sake rice varieties like Yamada Nishiki also have abundant and well-formed “shinpaku,” which is a sponge-like concentration of starch and tiny air pockets at the center of the rice grain. Good shinpaku is essential for the proper cultivation of koji mold, which is one of the most important factors in determining sake quality. Koji mold creates enzymes that break down starch into sugars, and shinpaku’s loosely packed starch allows the mold to produce the necessary enzymes more easily. Yamada Nishiki’s shinpaku is especially well-formed because it has an oval shape that remains intact even during polishing.
Yamada Nishiki and other sake rice varieties have many characteristics that make them suitable for sake brewing, which is why they continue to be chosen by breweries. However, climate change is affecting the rice-growing environment in ways that degrade the quality of sake rice and pose a significant challenge for the sake industry.
Efforts of the Sake Industry to Preserve the Future of Sake Rice: Responding to Climate Change and Evolving Labor Conditions
Takuma Sugimoto from the Agricultural and Horticultural Department of the Hyogo Prefectural Technology Center for Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, which manages Yamada Nishiki, said, “Over 45 years of research, we’ve found an inverse correlation between the quality of Yamada Nishiki and the increase in temperatures during the ripening period (the 40-50 days after the rice flowers bloom).” He explained, ” An average temperature of 26°C or below during the ripening period is ideal. When the average temperature exceeds 28°C, the amylopectin chains in the rice become longer, making it more difficult for the rice to dissolve during alcohol fermentation. In other words, the starch in the rice is less likely to convert into sugar, and as a result, less sugar is converted into alcohol, leading to a higher amount of sake lees after pressing. This phenomenon has actually been occurring since 1998.” Sugimoto highlighted that the increase in lees results in a lower yield of sake from the moromi (fermenting mash), which increases production costs and reduces profitability for sake brewers. He also noted that “the rate of shinpaku formation, one of Yamada Nishiki’s appealing qualities, has been decreasing due to higher temperatures.” In recent years, the shinpaku formation rate of Yamada Nishiki has dropped by about 5%, from around 70% to about 65%, leading to the production of immature rice grains called “nyuhaku” that crack easily during polishing.
The Hyogo Prefectural Technology Center for Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries has spent over ten years developing heat-resistant sake rice varieties such as Hyogo Sake 85 and Hyogo Nishiki to cope with future climate changes. Although these varieties are not used widely enough to replace Yamada Nishiki any time soon, these selective breeding efforts will continue in the long-term to adapt to the worsening effects of climate change.
In contrast to breeding new rice varieties, another emerging strategy for coping with climate change is to return to ancestral rice strains that have never been crossbred. Kazuaki Fujiwara, chairman of the Okayama Sake Rice Council, noted that Omachi, the ancestor of Yamada Nishiki and Gohyakumangoku with a long-running, passionate global following known as Omachist, is holding its own against the negative effects of climate change because it is a late-ripening variety, harvested as late as December. Despite Omachi’s benefits, Fujiwara expressed concern about the potential decline in Omachi farmers due to the difficulty of working with this rice. “Omachi is an unmodified original variety that has never undergone crossbreeding since its discovery. It grows very tall, reaching 1.7 meters, making it prone to lodging (falling over in the field). Its yield is about half that of regular table rice, but its price is not double. Moreover, its harvesting efficiency is lower than that of table rice or other sake rice,” he explained. Fujiwara added, “While it seems to have avoided the worst effects of climate change so far, worsening labor conditions and rising water temperatures in rice fields could affect future yields. It is concerning that Omachi farming, which requires much more labor than other sake rice, might decrease.”
In an effort to stave off such a decline, a traditional sake brewery in Okayama Prefecture has switched all its sake production to Omachi and is promoting the high value of sake made from Omachi, both domestically and internationally, in support of the farmers who cultivate it. While in the past there has been little cooperation or collaboration between rice farmers and sake brewers, more and more brewers and farmers are working closely together to address the challenges posed by climate change and by the evolving labor conditions impacting both industries.
Sake Striving for New Heights
Currently, traditional sake brewing is being proposed for UNESCO World Heritage registration under the title “Traditional knowledge and skills of sake-making with koji mold in Japan”. If traditional sake brewing follows the registration of washoku (traditional Japanese cuisine), it is expected to significantly contribute to the global recognition of sake. Domestically, new products like low-alcohol sake, canned sake, and sparkling sake, which break away from the traditional image of sake, are starting to emerge. In overseas markets, premium sake is gaining popularity, particularly in high-end Japanese restaurants, and various types of sake brewed abroad are capturing the hearts of local consumers. The JSS, along with the sake industry, is committed to addressing environmental changes, including climate change, while continuing to deliver beloved flavors across generations by spreading accurate knowledge about sake and its appeal worldwide, aiming to increase the number of sake lovers. *Note: The figures for 2023 and 2024 do not include some of the shipment volume from Ishikawa breweries affected by the earthquake on January 1, 2024.
*Note: The figures for 2023 and 2024 do not include some of the shipment volume from Ishikawa breweries affected by the earthquake on January 1, 2024.
